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Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and caused chaos, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is ready.

That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Establishments Not Ready

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.

"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."

Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue

The duo have studied the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.

"What troubles all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."

Legal Framework

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there will be a referendum.

Absence of Informed Dialogue

Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the shortage of serious debate, noted McBride.

"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the volume, no writer supports unity or the status quo. They writes two essays that aim for neutrality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and social data, past examples and governmental frameworks.

Arguments cover identity markers, levies, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and stimulate discussion.

"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented O’Toole. "Debate implies an acceptance of the idea that there could be valid points on either side."

Dual Referendums

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate say they favour unity but oppose increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.

"The Irish government must determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.

Possibility of Referendum

The journalist believes a referendum in his era is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless official who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, valid arguments, he commented. "One side will succeed here and somebody will ultimately lose but both parties has got valuable insights to gain from the opposing positions."

Request for Broader Discussion

Westminster should engage with the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."